MarketEdge AM Comments
Apr 26, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Nearby corn futures were slightly higher, deferred corn contracts were lower, and soybean futures were higher overnight. Since the majority of end-users have already rolled to July futures for their nearby bids and First Notice Day for May futures is Friday, we will now begin reporting on the July contracts as the nearby futures contracts for the purposes of this commentary. July corn finished the overnight session up a penny and a half, settling at 6.0925. July soybeans were up 3 cents, settling at 14.2050. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 454 points, trading at 101.409. June crude oil is off 52 cents, trading at $76.55 per barrel. Precious metals are all higher. Industrial metals are lower, except copper. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 45 points, trading at 33,697. Once again, fresh fundamental news regarding grains and oilseeds is scant this morning. The outside markets are a mixed bag, however, a weaker US Dollar Index overnight was supportive to commodities, in general. Also, a general lack of US weather concerns in the near term is weighing on corn and soybean futures and limiting upside potential, at this time. The current ten-day forecast for the Corn Belt calls for lower than normal temperatures and limited chances for precipitation. Although cooler temperatures aren’t necessarily ideal during planting, dry weather certainly is ideal. It is likely a lot of corn will be planted across the US Midwest in the next week or so. Yesterday, the funds were net even on corn, sold 5000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 1000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 39,700 contracts of corn, net long 113,630 contracts of soybeans, and net short 127,290 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, July corn finds initial support at yesterday’s low, 6.01, followed immediately by the psychological 6.00 mark, and then the nine-month low charted on March 10th, 5.97, and what’s left of the July 26th chart gap from that level on down to 5.9550. Initial resistance is at 6.12, the overnight high, followed by 6.18, this week’s high charted on Monday, and then the two-month high charted last Tuesday, 6.4750. July soybeans find initial support at 14.1125, the one-month low charted yesterday, followed by the psychological 14.00 level, and then 13.8375, the double-low from September 8th and March 24th and the nearly eight-month low for the contract. Initial resistance is at 14.2825, the overnight high, followed by 14.50, and then 15.01, the 1 ½ month high charted last Tuesday. Opening calls are steady/mixed.
Have a great Wednesday.
Good Morning. Nearby corn futures were slightly higher, deferred corn contracts were lower, and soybean futures were higher overnight. Since the majority of end-users have already rolled to July futures for their nearby bids and First Notice Day for May futures is Friday, we will now begin reporting on the July contracts as the nearby futures contracts for the purposes of this commentary. July corn finished the overnight session up a penny and a half, settling at 6.0925. July soybeans were up 3 cents, settling at 14.2050. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 454 points, trading at 101.409. June crude oil is off 52 cents, trading at $76.55 per barrel. Precious metals are all higher. Industrial metals are lower, except copper. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 45 points, trading at 33,697. Once again, fresh fundamental news regarding grains and oilseeds is scant this morning. The outside markets are a mixed bag, however, a weaker US Dollar Index overnight was supportive to commodities, in general. Also, a general lack of US weather concerns in the near term is weighing on corn and soybean futures and limiting upside potential, at this time. The current ten-day forecast for the Corn Belt calls for lower than normal temperatures and limited chances for precipitation. Although cooler temperatures aren’t necessarily ideal during planting, dry weather certainly is ideal. It is likely a lot of corn will be planted across the US Midwest in the next week or so. Yesterday, the funds were net even on corn, sold 5000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 1000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 39,700 contracts of corn, net long 113,630 contracts of soybeans, and net short 127,290 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, July corn finds initial support at yesterday’s low, 6.01, followed immediately by the psychological 6.00 mark, and then the nine-month low charted on March 10th, 5.97, and what’s left of the July 26th chart gap from that level on down to 5.9550. Initial resistance is at 6.12, the overnight high, followed by 6.18, this week’s high charted on Monday, and then the two-month high charted last Tuesday, 6.4750. July soybeans find initial support at 14.1125, the one-month low charted yesterday, followed by the psychological 14.00 level, and then 13.8375, the double-low from September 8th and March 24th and the nearly eight-month low for the contract. Initial resistance is at 14.2825, the overnight high, followed by 14.50, and then 15.01, the 1 ½ month high charted last Tuesday. Opening calls are steady/mixed.
Have a great Wednesday.